Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.
The Shift of Stance and Closed Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts
Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past
All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise of him to remember the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.
